What’s the stock market going to do in the next year?
This question is asked by millions of investors, both professional and amateur, every day.
Many professional investors spend their entire lives, and get paid a lot of money, to analyze everything from accounting statements to Donald Trump’s tweets, trying to predict the future direction of the stock market.
In a way, stock exchanges are giant betting markets. The current price of the S&P 500 or Apple stock is determined by the consensus of millions of investors. Using sports and political betting markets as analogies, it becomes clear how difficult it is to outsmart the stock market.
Sports Betting
I don’t gamble on sports, but I love to monitor the betting lines of the sporting events I watch.
For example, I want to know who Las Vegas thinks is the favorite in the France-Croatia World Cup final, and precisely what is the chance that France will win. Pinnacle Sports, one of the leading online sportsbooks, thinks France has a 67% chance of raising the World Cup in 2018.
In the fall, ESPN spends hours on Sportscenter having their experts make predictions on NFL and college football games. Some take their jobs more seriously than others:
While Lee Corso and his friends are good for a few laughs when they make their predictions, if you really want to know the chance Ohio State is going to beat Michigan, all you need to do is go straight to one source: the point spread.
In a single number, sports fans can figure out the exact probability that their team will win. For better or for worse, millions of dollars are wagered on college and NFL games, so the accuracy of the point spread or money line is very good.
Bookmakers in Las Vegas are skilled at handicapping games, but when they make the occasional mistake, professional gamblers (“sharps”) will push the betting towards the correct odds.
All public (and perhaps even some private/insider) information gets built into the betting line, such that it becomes difficult (if not impossible) to consistently beat the bookmakers in the long run.
Predicting Political Elections
To many political junkies, elections are like sports. One candidate is pitted against another, and election day is game day.
Elections have become like horse races, with a coterie of prognosticators (both partisan and non-partisan) attempting to predict the outcomes of political elections, and political fans from both parties rooting their team on as the polls swing up and down in the weeks and months before an election.
If you want to know the chance that your political party will win an election, you could listen to your favorite talk show host on the radio. You could listen to the pundits on Fox News if you’re a Republican or MSNBC if you’re a Democrat. They’ll be sure to spin the results of the most recent debate or opinion poll to argue for your political team.
Non-partisan prognosticators try to take a more objective view of the data. My favorites are the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.
Don’t Trust The Polls
However, even polls can be biased. For example, pollsters have to make many assumptions about the political makeup (Republican vs. Democrat vs. independent) in the likely voter population. When pollsters get this distribution wrong (intentionally or unintentionally), it skews the poll results, even beyond the stated margin for error.
Political Betting Markets
When I want to know the chance that the Democrats will take the House or the Republicans retain control of the Senate in 2018, I go to the political betting markets. Traditional sportsbooks such as Betfair offer odds on political bets, and I also like PredictIt to track political odds. For example, PredictIt believes that there is currently a 63% chance that the Democrats will take the House and a 76% chance the Republicans will retain control of the Senate in 2018.
In 2016, political betting markets gave Donald Trump a much higher chance of winning the election than political prognosticators, who almost uniformly predicted that Hilary Clinton would win the election.
Predicting The Future of The Stock Market
Much like the betting markets on sporting events or political elections, the stock market price you see on your stocks app or Fidelity screen is the aggregation of all publicly available information. It is the compilation of thousands, if not millions, of hours of work by hundreds of thousands of investors (professional and amateur).
CNBC and Bloomberg fill their hours bringing in a revolving door of investment professionals who make their predictions about where the stock market is headed and which stocks are going to outperform the market.
At the end of each year, most financial publications will poll a couple of investment “experts” who will make their predictions for the top stocks in the next year. Unfortunately, the predictions usually don’t outperform the stock market.
I find it unlikely that a regular investor who does a few hours of homework a week would be able to beat the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market participants.
Conclusion
I listen to sports talk radio and read political news websites just like many of you. However, when it comes to predictions, these outlets are merely for entertainment value and I take little stock in their predictions. Betting markets, while admittedly imperfect, is the best predictor of future events, including what will happen in the stock market. Use the wisdom of the stock market to your advantage by investing in a low-cost diversified index fund portfolio, rather than trying to outsmart the invisible hand.
What do you think? Do you ever look at betting lines or political prediction markets?
There may be short term movement based on what a popular figurehead may say will happen to a stock (ie when someone says strong sell or strong buy, the sheep will follow). But for long term trends the stocks will eventually get to a close valuation of the company.
Of course you have some people that are giants in the industry and when you hear Warren buffet bought a company those company shares to through the roof because everyone wants in on what Warren does (and then it makes him even look like more of a genius)
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